Mobile Payments: Japan Leads the Pack

The potential of cellphone-based mobile payments to eventually squeeze banks out of their central role in payments can already be seen in East Asia, says Andrei Hagiu, a principal at Market Platform Dynamics, and by ignoring it, American banks have nothing to lose but their business.

Octopus_cardHong Kong’s Octopus prepaid debit card (see inset) is one example: Issued by Hong Kong’s subway system and several other transportation companies—with no bank involved—Octopus cards drive about $2.2 billion in annual payments volume.

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Interchange Front Shifts to Germany

Germany’s federal monopolies body, the Bundeskartellamt, received a legal complaint from the German Retail Association, alleging that interchange fee charged MasterCard and VISA, which average 150 basis points, prevents widespread credit card acceptance in Germany.

In a statement, the Association, a lobbying group, said that credit card payment account for only 5 per cent of all retail sales in Germany. The complaint calls on the Bundeskartellamt to cut interchange fees and to increase payment card transparency. It claims these steps will improve competition in the credit card sector. Spain, says the group, has ordered a step-by-step reduction of interchange to between 0.54 per cent and 1.10 per cent by 2008.

Payment Cards Watershed – MasterCard IPO

This should be a watershed year for payments cards. The approaching MasterCard IPO, and Visa’s likely response, will likely reform the sector’s fundamental business structure. Meanwhile, First Data Corp. is undergoing profound changes, and it’s unlikely that either Discover or American Express will be twiddling their thumbs while the future of the card associations is decided.

The MasterCard IPO will likely have the greatest impact on the space, thinks David Evans, founder of Market Platform Dynamics. "It will force them to become a much more entrepreneurial and different organization than it’s been in the past, partly because of changes in the marketplace, but also because of organizational changes that will change the dynamic of that entity," because of the need to satisfy its new investors, he says.

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Low Value Payments & Stored Value Cards

In the coming year, low-value payments and prepaid cards will be increasingly mentioned in the same breath, especially in conjunction with off-line, contactless methods, says Gwenn Bezard, partner in Aite Group.

Pilots, and even some deployments of contactless payment cards, will be making a significant appearance, if only because banks are pushing them. The main sticking point from the merchant perspective, Bezard says, will be the cost of interchange, but he expects some banks to offer breaks on fees, if only to give the venue a running start. He is optimistic that big merchants will follow Starbucks’ model and offer rechargeable, merchant-specific stored-value cards as a means of gaining market share and promoting customer loyalty.

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Quantifying Online Interbank Transfer Volumes

We’ve been tracking the developments in account-to-account transfers closely, in preparation for an upcoming Online Banking Report on the subject. It’s tough to get a handle on the actual dollar volumes, so we were pleased to see American Banker’s quantify the market size.

In Friday’s article (subscription required), MasterCard’s TowerGroup payments analyst, Beth Robertson is quoted as saying that in 2004, $730 billion was transferred via account-to-account transfer (i.e., a funds transfer from an individual’s account at one financial institution to the same customer’s account at another). That amounts to more than $7000 for each of approximately 100 million U.S. households. All but a billion or so was initiated off-line.

But the online portion is growing. CashEdge the leading supplier of online account-to-account transfers, expects to process $6 billion in 2005, that’s about $200 annually for each of the 30 million or so U.S. online banking households. However, fewer than 50% of those households have access to online account-to-account transfers.

JB