Take a Deep Breath About PayPal and Wal-Mart Banks

This week eBay reported that PayPal’s volumes were above $8 billion for the first time, and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. (FDIC) agreed to hold hearings this spring on whether to issue FDIC insurance to Wal-Mart Stores Inc. as part of the retail giant’s application to get a Utah industrial loan corporation.

Both companies are being watched almost microscopically by banks and other payment providers who are afraid that these companies are going to somehow walk away with their payments franchise. Our advice: Relax.

Sure, PayPal is doing well: Net revenues this past quarter grew 48 percent over the same period last year—they were $298 million—and gross volume was up 45 percent by the same measurements. But unnoticed amongst all the heavy breathing was that PayPal user accounts grew 51 percent in the same period. In other words, the growth in volumes and revenues was proportional to the growth of eBay’s core business, not some indication of a sinister plot for world domination.

The hysteria surrounding Wal-Mart’s moves is even worse. The suspicion in the payments industry, of course, is that once Wal-Mart has the license and the insurance, it’ll begin pushing into community banking, driving all those small institutions into the famous Wal-Mart meat grinder and emerging a coast-to-coast financial services colossus. And considering Wal-Mart’s history, it’s easy to succumb to those anxieties.

But we believe Wal-Mart when it says it only wants the license so it can be its own payment card acquirer. For one thing, the move makes sense for it: According to our calculations, it’ll save Wal-Mart at least $650 million a year, based on its 2004 revenues of $172 billion (see Electronic Payments Week, July 26, 2005). And for another, Wal-Mart’s application to the FDIC says on page one that this is their reason for wanting the bank, and we are skeptical that Wal-Mart executives would willingly commit perjury in such a closely-watched event; there’s absolutely no evidence that these guys are stupid.

There may be some logic to our view, but our belief, touching though it may be, hasn’t prevented over 1,500 comment letters to have been sent to the FDIC on the matter, nor has it discouraged the House Committee on Financial Services from scheduling hearings about Wal-Mart’s plans. And the FDIC has already agreed to delay any decision on the insurance application until the issue has been fully aired.

Those hearings will make interesting viewing on C-SPAN, but in our view, banks and payments processors would be better served in the case of both companies by studying what they’re doing, and drawing useful lessons from them. We can understand why the success of PayPal, and the motions of Wal-Mart, would arouse anxieties within the industry: It’s being swept by transformative change, and both companies represent what Harvard professor Clay Christensen calls disruptive technologies.

But aside from finding any irony in the spectacle of capitalists trying to stifle competition, there’s the deeper concern that the industry may be losing faith in itself. Banks began as counting houses, and unless they do something unreasonably boneheaded, they are unlikely to be driven out of their inner redoubt as long as they meet that competition head on.

Our recommendation: Remember what U.S. Grant said at the Battle of the Wilderness. Robert E. Lee had whipped the Union twice before on the same ground, and Grant’s staff was beside itself wondering how Lee would whip them again. “Stop worrying about what he’s going to do to you, and start thinking about what you’re going to do to him,” said Grant. That campaign ended with Lee's surrender at Appomattox.

 

PayPal Launches Micropayment Pricing

Paypal_logoThe so-called micropayments market has been one of the most hyped non-issues of the Internet era. First, it’s not a monumental problem; there are many workarounds available, such as ACH processing, monthly billing, and so on. Second, the market, by definition, is not huge. Even a billion 99-cent downloads generates just $100 million in interchange revenue at PayPal’s new prices (see below).

Nevertheless, it’s good to see solutions evolve. Today’s PayPal announcement should help continue that natural progression. Ebay’s online payment arm announced that it wil provide a micropayment option priced at 5 cents per transaction plus 5% of the transaction amount. That means a dime in interchage for a 99-cent song compared to closer to $0.25 to $0.30 under industry standard pricing today.

It won’t change the world, but as they say, every penny counts.

JB

PayPal offers “eCommerce Safety Guide”

Paypal_ecommerce_guide_click_to_enlarge_1 PayPal’s state-of-the-art Security Center has a new educational piece, the 20-page eCommerce Safety Guide (download 1MB file).

The handbook covers three areas:
– safe online shopping
– preventing identity theft
– phishing and spoofing

Naturally, it concludes with a section promoting PayPal and eBay as safe methods of buying online.

The booklet, authored by Robert Chesnut, eBay VP of Trust and Safety, uses Gartner and Javelin Strategy for its identity theft data.

Analysis
Financial institutions looking to increase their educational efforts should consider posting a similar booklet, explaining the protection afforded by bank products. Total readership may not be high, but it demonstrates a commitment to the customer in an area of high anxiety these days. It would be an excellent summer intern project.

To learn more about how to promote online security and peace of mind to your customers, check out Marketing Security: The sensitive issue of publicizing security and authorization enhancements from our sister publication, the Online Banking Report.

PayPal Offers Preapproved Credit Line to Members

PayPal now marketing Buyer Credit directly to buyers

 

Ebay’s PayPal unit already offers transaction accounts, interest
and non-interest bearing, debit cards, credit cards (through First USA),
online bill payment, person-to-person payments, interbank transfers,
merchant transaction processing, investment accounts, insurance, and
indirect lending. About the only thing missing from their line-up, revolving
credit and mortgage lending (see Timeline, Table 4, opposite).
Correction, make that just mortgage lending.  This summer the auction
payments giant added a revolving credit option called PayPal Buyer Credit
(see screenshot below). Until recently, it’s been mostly targeted to
sellers who are encouraged to offer it as a financing alternative on their
auction listings. Depending on the program sellers pay 0.50% to 3.75% of the
selling price to fund the financing. The most common offer on eBay during
the pre-holiday rush is no payments/no interest until April 2005 (see
screenshot opposite
). If the buyer takes advantage of the offer, it will
cost the seller 0.50% of the purchase price, and the seller will receive the
entire purchase price, less PayPal fees, immediately (see Table 5, for
more seller costs
).

Users are encouraged to apply for Buyer Credit in advance.
Assuming they are approved PayPal users can select Buyers Credit as their
funding source when checking out or sending money from PayPal. Buyer Credit
can be used to pay anywhere that accepts PayPal, it could even be used to
send money to an individual, but they must be a Premier or Business member.
Buyer Credit is provided by GE Capital Consumer Card Co. at an annual
percentage rate of 20.8%, which increases to 24.75% if the user becomes
delinquent (late twice during a six-month period). The rate is variable at
prime plus 15.5%, with a 20.8% minimum. Late fees vary from $15 to $35
depending on outstanding balance.

 

Table 4

Product Timeline

PayPal’s moves into banking

 

Table 5

Seller’s Cost to Offer Special Financing

Minimum
Cost*     Purchase              Offer

0.50%      $199                     No payments for 3 months and no
interest if paid in 3 months

1.75%      $199                     No interest if paid in 6 months

3.75%      $199                     No interest if paid in 12 months

0.60%      $999                     12 fixed monthly payments at 12.9%
APR

1.50%      $1999                  24 fixed monthly payments at 12.9% APR

Source: PayPal, 12/13/04             *Percent of purchase price

 

 

 

For more information

 

Table 6

Recent PayPal Stats

million unless otherwise stated

04-dec-f04.jpg

Source: Ebay financial statements, Online Banking Report, 11/04