What does it take to be a fintech analyst? You have to be willing to get things wrong on occasion. Along with that, you need to be able to admit when you’re wrong. This becomes most apparent every December, when it comes time to share predictions on what the fintech industry can expect in the coming year.

Many of my predictions for 2023, which you can find published in this month’s eMagazine, were shaped from looking back at the trends I predicted for the latter half of 2022. Here’s a look at some of those trends, along with an assessment of how I did and a prediction for how the trend will fare in 2023.

Prediction #1: Beginning the era of “neo super apps”

How I did:
Wrong. With every other fintech company claiming to be a super app these days, this prediction is slightly subjective. In my opinion, however, we haven’t entered an era of neo-super apps.

What to expect:
A year ago, I would have identified the first potential U.S. super app as PayPal. However, Walmart has been making strides in this area and is getting ready to compete in the fintech arena. As a bottomline, we are still a ways out from super apps taking over fintech.

Prediction #2: Accelerating M&A activity

How I did:
Somewhat correct. In comparing M&A activity to pre-pandemic 2019 levels, M&A activity has indeed increased. Though year-end data for 2022 hasn’t been published yet, according to FT Partners’ Q3 2022 Fintech Insights Report, there have been 998 deals so far in 2022. While this represents a slight increase over the 986 M&A deals conducted in 2019, it is a large slide from the 1,486 deals closed last year.

What to expect:
The recent economic decline is causing companies to watch their pockets closely and mitigate risk where they can. Many large fintechs have already made major layoffs in order to maintain their bottomline or reduce their burn rate. These factors will contribute to both lower deal numbers and deal volume in 2023.

Prediction #3: Dwindling conversation around digital transformation

How I did:
Correct. While the need for digital transformation across verticals has not subsided, the continuous pulse of conversation around digital transformation has eased up.

What to expect:
This does not mean that digital transformation is over. In fact, many of the conversations we can expect to have in 2023– such as embedded finance, banking-as-a-service, and personalization– are built on the foundation of digital transformation.

Prediction #4: More discussion around Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs)

How I did:
Correct. In the U.S., the Federal Reserve has not taken much action toward creating a CBDC other than issuing a discussion paper on the topic. However, there has been a flurry of activity around CBDCs across the globe. In December of 2021, nine countries had launched a CBDC, while today, 11 have launched their own CBDC. Similarly, CBDC development has increased. In December of 2021, 14 companies had a CBDC in development, while today there are 26 countries with a CBDC in development.

What to expect:
In the U.S. the discussion around CBDCs will progress, especially now that the FTX scandal has brought to light the need for more governmental intervention and oversight.

Prediction #5: BNPL takes a backseat

How I did:
Wrong. Though there have been many publications warning consumers about the dangers of misusing BNPL tools, we are still seeing a regular pulse of new BNPL launches throughout the industry. And while the CFPB published a study on the growth of BNPL and its impact on consumers, the organization has not implemented any formal regulation restricting BNPL players’ movements in the market.

What to expect:
I’m refreshing this prediction for 2023. Consumers have over-leveraged themselves when it comes to BNPL, and it is not only starting to catch up with them, but it is also catching up with the BNPL companies themselves. According to the CFPB’s study, “Lenders’ profit margins are shrinking: Margins in 2021 were 1.01% of the total amount of loan originated, down from 1.27% in 2020.”

Additionally, though the CFPB has been vague on the timing, there is looming regulation facing BNPL tools. “Buy Now, Pay Later is a rapidly growing type of loan that serves as a close substitute for credit cards,” said CFPB Director Rohit Chopra. “We will be working to ensure that borrowers have similar protections, regardless of whether they use a credit card or a Buy Now, Pay Later loan.”

Subsiding talent acquisition

How I did:
Correct. Though companies will always face difficulties trying to secure quality employees, we are no longer seeing the tech talent war that we experienced in 2021. In fact, in the latter half of 2022, we saw the opposite. A handful of fintech companies, including Plaid, Autobooks, MX, Klarna, Brex, Stripe, Chime, and more, have laid off sizable portions of their staff.

What to expect:
The painful reality is that the layoffs will likely continue into 2023 as the economy continues to contract.

Photo by Brett Jordan

For many in the fintech industry, there are few things as scary as the economy right now. High inflation, lowered investor and consumer confidence, and political tensions are all contributing to an uncertain future.

One of the largest impacts of this pullback in the fintech industry is seen in the drop in venture capital funding, the lifeblood of privately held companies. The lack of funding is giving startups of all sizes a shorter cash runway, which is leading to employee downsizing and increased exit activity.

We turned to CB Insights, which recently dropped its Q3 2022 State of Venture report, for some statistics that help tell the story of today’s funding environment in fintech and beyond. Here are some of the high-level takeaways:

71% drop in new unicorns in the third quarter of this year

Across the globe, there were only 25 newly minted unicorns in the third quarter of 2022. This is the lowest count since the first quarter of 2020, when the pandemic first began. It is worth noting that 14 of the 25 new unicorns are U.S. based. The total number of unicorns across the globe is now 1,192.

38% drop in fintech funding QoQ

Looking at the fintech sector specifically, fintech funding across the globe dropped to $12.9 billion. This dip– a 38% drop– marks the lowest quarterly funding amount in nine quarters. The last time fintech funding was this low was in the second quarter of 2020, when fintech funding totaled $12.2 billion.

42% drop in median deal size for late-stage rounds this year

So far in 2022, the median size of late-stage deals has totaled $29 million. This represents a 42% drop from last year’s total of $50 million. This year’s median late-stage deal size is similar to the median size of mid-stage deals, which totals $30 million. Interestingly, this median mid-stage deal size is on-par with the median mid-stage deal size of 2021, which also totaled $30 million.

56% fewer investments from top 3 investors

According to CB Insights, last quarter’s top three investors are quieter this quarter. Tiger Global Management, Gaingels, and SOSV made 109 investments this quarter. This figure is 56% lower than the number the investors made in the second quarter of this year. Notably, Tiger Global Management, which has been the number one investor in the past three quarters, did not even rank among the top 10 investors this quarter.

A bright light

Things are not all gloom and doom this Halloween. Looking at the bright side, while fintech funding is dropping, it is still above pre-pandemic levels.

As an example, in the first quarter of 2020, before the pandemic truly exploded, quarterly fintech funding totaled $11.3 billion. That’s $1 billion lower than today’s level. Going back even further, in the first quarter of 2018, quarterly fintech funding totaled $9.6 billion.

So perhaps it’s best to look at these drops as a market reset, instead of as the fintech world coming to an end.

Photo by Karolina Grabowska

We’re more than halfway through the year, and before you know it, we’ll be publishing trends predictions for 2023. However, a lot can happen over the course of five months, so we’ve decided to examine what to look for and what you can expect in fintech between now and the new year.

Beginning the era of “neo super apps”

Over the past year, there has been much debate on whether or not the U.S. and Europe will ever have a super app. Plaid CEO Zach Perret takes a different angle on this. He is expecting “neo super apps” to rise in popularity.

“Within lending, brokerage, and banking, super apps will emerge, adding every bit of functionality within financial services. Over time, they’ll actually be able to add in things that are above and beyond financial services,” said Perret in a Plaid report.

Accelerating M&A activity

It’s no secret that fintech funding is down, especially in later stage deals. Because of this, some fintechs have been driven to sell sooner than they had hoped. As for acquirers, many are looking to cash in on the “neo super app” trend by adding to their firm’s expertise, bundling multiple services into a single offering. In the first half of the year, we have seen an increase in M&A activity over 2019 levels, and we expect that to continue into the second half of the year.

Ramping up a focus on ESG

Fintech companies and traditional financial institutions alike have sharpened their focus on ESG initiatives in the past couple of years. And while climate change may be enough of a reason for firms to implement new ESG practices, the SEC is giving laggards an incentive to step up their game. The commission recently proposed amendments to rules and reporting forms to promote consistent, comparable, and reliable information for investors concerning funds’ and advisers’ incorporation of ESG factors.

Increasing solutions surrounding consumer credit

After dipping in 2020, Americans’ credit usage is now on the rise. Inflation, and especially the increase in costs of everyday expenses such as housing and gas, is prompting higher credit usage while consumers iron out their budgets and adjust their lifestyles to fit the extra expenses.

Dwindling conversation around digital transformation

We have finally arrived at the moment when digital offerings have become the rule, not the exception. While we can still expect to hear the phrase “digital transformation,” it is becoming less and less common.

More discussion around Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs)

The progress toward CBDCs has been slow, but steady. Currently, 10 countries have fully launched a digital currency and more than 105 countries are exploring them. Just two years ago, only 35 countries were considering a CBDC. This digital currency race will only become more heated as more countries seek to be among the first to offer a CBDC.

Growing competition in alternative business payments solutions

After launching just five years ago, Brex has quickly risen to become one of the most successful fintechs, boasting a valuation of $12.3 billion. The startup is a super app for businesses, offering companies credit cards and cash management solutions.

At three years old, Brex’s competitor Ramp isn’t too far behind. The company is valued at $8.1 billion. Clearly, these companies are filling a need for businesses that has not previously been met. We can expect others to follow their footsteps to cash in on the gold rush.

BNPL takes a backseat

It’s no secret that BNPL payment schemes are causing cash flow difficulties for younger, less financially savvy consumers. Many are finding it difficult to keep up with the repayment obligations. This, combined with a lack of regulatory oversight, is tarnishing BNPL’s reputation.

We can expect to see a slowdown in BNPL newcomers, though I do think we’ll still see more large firms add BNPL schemes to their existing offerings.

Subsiding talent acquisition

A year ago, the workforce shortage was taking its toll on the fintech industry and we were discussing strategies to acquire new employees. After the economic sedation started this spring, however, this discussion has slowed. Startups have started to worry about burn rate and corporations have shifted their focus to their bottomline, which has already resulted in layoffs. With VC funding down, we can expect to see a continuation of this decline in the next five months.

Providing everything-as-a-service

These days companies can fill holes in their offerings by purchasing just about anything as a service, including ESG-investing-as-a-service, credit-cards-as-a-service, accounting-data-as-a-service, and more. As banks, startups, financial services, and even non-financial players seek to build up their customer base and play into the “neo super apps” trend Perret discussed, we can expect to see even more companies take the “-as-a-service” model to increase their customer base.

Photo by Dany Kurniawan

Often ignored as a boring fintech subsector, insurtech is in the midst of reinventing itself to fit into today’s digital-first era. Straits Research expects the global insurtech market to reach a valuation of more than $114 billion by 2030, growing at a CAGR of 46.10% from now until that time.

We’ve rounded up a handful of insurtechs whose new innovations in the space are contributing to this growth.

InShare

InShare was founded in 2019 by a group of Uber, Lyft, and Airbnb alums to deliver insurance solutions to meet the unique needs of sharing economy platforms such as rideshare, delivery, homeshare, and eMobility markets.

“We have an expert team of gig insiders across all facets of insurance that are working closely with brokers who specialize in the on-demand economy,” said InShare VP Gary Lovelace. “We’re making the buying experience straightforward, flexible and frictionless for brokers and customers. More fundamentally, we’re bringing occupational accident insurance into the digital age.”

GetSafe

Germany-based GetSafe aims to make insurance simple, fair, and accessible by leveraging smart bots and automation. The company recently launched liability, household, and dog owner liability insurance in Austria. GetSafe plans to launch in France and Italy in the coming months.

Federato

Federato provides an underwriting platform for insurance companies that unlocks existing data sources to intelligently determine risk across a range of insurance types. The company has spent more than 1,250 hours of research to redesign the underwriting workflow to be fast, efficient, and painless. Federato was founded in 2020 and is headquartered in California.

Hourly

Hourly offers a platform to help small business owners pay, manage, and protect their hourly workers. The company leverages real-time data to help business owners see their exact premiums and labor costs in real-time and to help insurers better predict premiums and risk. The company’s services are currently only available in California. However, Hourly received a $27 million Series A investment today that it will use to expand into more regions.

Photo by George Becker

If you measure the beginning of fintech as 1886, the industry has had a very long time to get things right. Even if you consider 2007 as the birth of fintech, we have still had 15 years to deliver on the promises of improving and automating banking and finance.

In a panel at FinovateEurope titled, “Power Panel: What Do We All Need To Go Away & Think About?” the Financial Data and Technology Association’s Head of Europe Ghela Boskovich (pictured on the right in the photo below) declared that fintech has failed, citing the millions of underbanked citizens across the globe.

There are, of course, two sides to the coin. Below, we take a look at how fintech has failed, along with the wins the industry has accomplished over the years.

Fail

• Underbanked populations are still left in the dark
  There have been hundreds of solutions created specifically to help underbanked populations. Some are very specific, like the ones that help people build up their credit score by reporting on-time rent payments. Others, such as niche challenger banks, offer a host of tools under one solution.
  Despite these efforts, 22% of American adults are either unbanked or underbanked. The industry is either not creating effective solutions or not reaching the right people.
• Integrations are broken
  Even though many U.S. consumers do not know what the term “open finance” means, they are well aware of its implications. With very few exceptions, banks and fintechs don’t share customer data effectively. Users either need to manually input their financial data or they are continuously asked to re-authenticate to make data aggregation possible.
• Open banking regulation is non-existent in the U.S.
  While Europe has been enjoying the benefits of open banking since its mandates went into effect in September 2018, the U.S. is still behind. However, President Joe Biden signed the Executive Order on Promoting Competition in the American Economy last July. The order urges the CFPB to implement rules supporting open banking.
• Fraud is rampant
  Consumers have been struggling to safeguard not only their digital identity but also their personally identifiable information and payment credentials since before the dawn of the internet. Fraud incidents have increased dramatically in the past few years, further proving that the industry has a lot to do to stay ahead in this subsector.
• Digital identity is flawed
  Having users prove they are who they say they are has always been a headache in the fintech industry. Keeping track of login credentials has consistently irked users, and fraudulent account takeovers has proven that a username and a password aren’t enough. While many biometric authentication methods would have seemed futuristic to us two decades ago, many still cause too much friction in the user experience and aren’t enough to keep bad actors away.
• Real-time is still a dream
  While the blockchain has helped bring some transactions, authentications, and approvals into near-real time, the concept of instant banking activity is still far from reality. Consumers are still waiting three days for bank payments to clear. The U.S. Federal Reserve’s FedNow service has been working on a fix for this for years and is now piloting the solution. However, the target launch date isn’t until 2023.

It’s easy to identify these shortcomings, especially when there’s so much promising innovation to look forward to. However, let’s take a look at some of the ways the fintech industry has fulfilled its promises to make users’ financial lives easier, simplified, and more informed.

Win

• Helped underbanked populations
  Though the number of unbanked consumers is still shockingly high, fintech has done a lot to help populations with no access to a bank account. The war on payday lending may be one of the brightest examples of this. Fintech has not only helped to highlight the hazards of payday lenders, the industry also has created tools such as earned wage access to help employees smooth out their cashflow and meet their financial obligations on time.
• Supported digital-first customers
  The fintech industry has come a long way since the implementation of SMS banking in 2007. Even though it was such as simple innovation, only a handful of banks offered banking via text.
  Compare this to where the industry is today. Even the smallest financial institutions offer rich digital banking tools that can pack an entire bank branch’s worth of activity into a client’s smartphone.
• Made banking available any time (even if transactions still don’t clear after hours)
  By supporting digital-first and digital-only customers, the fintech industry has also helped consumers who prefer to bank in-branch. That’s because users can still accomplish many banking activities, such as a loan application, even after branches have closed.
• Provided plenty of employment opportunities for all of the recovering bankers out there
  This one is self-explanatory. How many times have you heard someone in the fintech space describe themselves as a “recovering banker”?

Photo by Brett Jordan on Unsplash

Can we stop naming AI as a trend in fintech? Probably not yet, but we should. That’s because trends ebb and flow, but AI isn’t going anywhere. Banks and fintechs aren’t going to let up on leveraging AI within the decade. In fact, the number of times we’ve seen the adjective “AI-powered” has only increased.

Depending on how you define it, fintech has been in existence for around 20 years. That’s a long time for themes to rise and fall. Below is a look at transitory trends, lasting trends, and AI’s place in the mix.

Fleeting trends

As regulation, technology, and consumer habits and tastes have changed throughout the years, so have fintech trends. However, many ideas in fintech never took off. While some were overhyped, others were simply a solution looking for a problem or were an idea before their time, offered to the market too soon.

A recent example of a transitory trend is card-linked offers (CLO) Also called merchant-funded rewards, these customer loyalty and rewards tools reached their peak in 2012. Similar to the buy now, pay later craze that is happening right now, there were multiple launches of new CLO companies each month. Even large banks were getting on board. In fact, in 2012 Bank of America debuted a CLO product, BankAmeriDeals, powered by Cardlytics.

It’s worth noting that card-linked offers are still around. It is only the growth rate and hype around CLOs that have decreased. In fact, Cardlytics, Cartera Commerce, Cachet Financial Solutions, and others still exist and serve customers today.

Lasting trends

The list of lasting trends in fintech is short. In fact, there are only a handful of trends that have been introduced over the last two decades that have become table stakes for every bank and fintech across all sub-sectors. Not surprisingly, because these lasting trends are now standard throughout the industry, they all seem quite obvious.

Three solid examples of these stronghold trends include having a digital presence, providing a mobile app, and offering digital payment/money transfer capabilities. The evolution began, at the dawn of fintech, with banks just starting to establish their online presence. The next adaptation of that was SMS banking, which evolved into to mobile apps and digital money movement.

Today, the application of AI is becoming so standard across the fintech industry that it can be added to the fintech trend hall of fame.

The current state of AI

In case you haven’t been paying attention, AI is being used across the entire fintech industry. Its applications are almost limitless, but here are a handful of current examples.

• Lending– Underwriters can use AI to enhance the decisioning process to reduce risk, as well as to monitor for unseen biases in the lending process.
• Payments– AI can enable biometrics-activated payments and can also create smooth payment processes by analyzing past transactions before approving or declining transactions on an issuer’s behalf.
• Wealth management– Wealthtech companies can empower users with self-driving money, a concept that describes moving funds into and out of different accounts and investments based on fund performance, cash flow, and bill due dates.
• Insurtech– AI can enhance predictive data modeling to create better pricing models around policies.
• Security– Fraud detection in financial activity relies heavily on AI, as do both identity detection and verification.

Funding for AI fintechs has been on the rise since 2016. According to CB Insights, the total amount of funding in 2021 for AI startups in fintech is at the same level as last year’s year-end total, with $3.1 billion raised across 161 deals. This year, the average investment size clocked in at $25 million. There has also been an increase in M&A activity for fintech AI startups. So far this year there have been 12 mergers and acquisitions in the space, compared to eight last year and two in 2016.

Photo by Volodymyr Hryshchenko on Unsplash

Last week the rumor mill was turning rapidly with news that PayPal was in talks to purchase visual bookmarking tool Pinterest. The purchase would have been a big one, as PayPal was said to have offered $45 billion for Pinterest.

PayPal has been quick to quash the gossip, however. The company issued a release on Sunday stating, “In response to market rumors regarding a potential acquisition of Pinterest by PayPal, PayPal stated that it is not pursuing an acquisition of Pinterest at this time.”

But there are a few arguments why acquiring Pinterest would actually be good for PayPal. Let’s take a look.

Bolster online shopping

Integrating Pinterest into its own app would give PayPal the potential to be an online shopping powerhouse. The curated nature of the images on Pinterest makes the social media company, in effect, a staged showroom for potential ecommerce purchases.

This is thanks to Pinterest’s Product Pins, a tool that essentially helps users purchase items they see in a pin without leaving the Pinterest app, and Shoppable Pins, affiliate links that content creators can add to pins to receive a commission from purchases.

PayPal is already known for offering payments, loyalty programs, money transfer capabilities, and a high-yield savings account. If the company integrated Pinterest within its own app, it could serve as a shopping inspiration app. Pinterest users already spend hours browsing to get ideas for everything from clothing to gifts to vacations. If PayPal could insert these habits into its own app, it could become the app where consumers go before they even think about the transaction.

Compete with Amazon

Buying Pinterest would help PayPal compete even with the likes of Amazon and eBay, PayPal’s own former parent company. While the transaction volume wouldn’t come near that of Amazon’s, PayPal would have a small leg up on the online retail giant.

That’s because Pinterest would bring an addictive, continuous scroll interface with a built-in client base. What’s more, users can plan and purchase almost anything from Pinterest– even travel tickets and experiences. For example, users planning their trip to the Maldives can purchase their hotel stay from within the Pinterest app. In contrast, when an Amazon customer searches “Maldives,” they are directed to purchase a book or a t-shirt.

Bolster its reputation as a superapp

The new release inches PayPal closer toward becoming the first super app in the U.S. Last month, the company launched a new version of its mobile app.

However, the app lacks some elements of more traditional super apps. Even though PayPal has a wide variety of financial tools and capabilities– including a high-yield savings account, loyalty and rewards tools, billpay management tools, a direct deposit feature, gift card management, credit access, buy now, pay later services, and crypto transactions– the app lacks breadth.

As we reported earlier this year, there are 10 key elements to a super app. And even if PayPal successfully integrated Pinterest, it would be missing most of the elements, including food delivery, transportation services, travel services, health services, insurance, and government services.

What’s holding PayPal back?

Why might PayPal be hesitant to acquire Pinterest? A lot of it likely has to do with the price tag. Pinterest has a current market capitalization of around $32.7 billion. The rumored $45 billion acquisition represents about 15% of PayPal’s own market capitalization of $290 billion.

An acquisition of this size wouldn’t be out of the ordinary in the fintech industry. However, the deal would be sizable enough that PayPal would need a very clear value proposition with the integration of Pinterest.