Deja Vu: The First* Canadian Person-to-Person Lending Service Readies for Launch — CommunityLend

imageCommunity Lend reached out to bloggers last week to get the launch buzz started (note 1). The site appears ready to go, all it needs is a loan/borrow signup form in place the email notification box in the center of the homepage (below).

From the look of it, the startup has a good design team. It's direct and to the point in the main section while staying fresh with blog posts, selected news stories, and press releases displayed in widget-like boxes along the bottom of the screen (below the fold on my laptop). But I'll reserve judgement until I see the actual lending and borrowing screens when they become available.

The most interesting part of the pre-release info was the list of official advisors to the startup which included Virgin Money (US) CEO Asheesh Advani as well as the Phil Hopper, CEO of Australian P2P lender, iGrin. It will be interesting to see if those relationships turn into future Canadian partnerships.

For more information on P2P lending, see our recent Online Banking Report (#148/149) and catch Prosper and Loanio on stage at our FinovateStartup April 29 in San Francisco.

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*Technically, IOU Central was first in the Canadian market. However, a few weeks after launch it was forced to shut down as it works to satisfy regulators (coverage here). Therefore, the honor looks like it will go to CommunityLend.

 

CommunityLend pre-launch homepage (17 April 2008)
CommunityLend home page pre-launch

 
Note:

1. Blogger outreach is the modern day equivalent to the press conference. Dave Colman's emails to bloggers resulted in five blog posts that same day, and that's without any news other than its UNOPENED site had been remodeled. Think back to the last time you revamped your website, did you get five press mentions?  

Q1 Prosper/Lending Club Loan Volumes Up 55% (Y/Y)

lendingclub_logoLast week's post on P2P lending traffic prompted several comments on how worthless website traffic is as a metric, especially when the two major players make their loan-production numbers public. With that in mind, I present the Q1 total loan production for Lending Club and Prosper.

prosper_logoWhile Prosper still had twice the overall loan volume of Lending Club in Q1 ($21 vs. $10 million), Lending Club is closing the gap in the prime/near-prime market (FICO 640+) originating two-thirds the volume of Prosper in March ($4 vs. $6 million). But if you take into account Lending Club's more stringent debt-to-income requirements (max 30%), the newcomer actually surpassed Prosper in these lower-risk loans ($4.1 vs. $3.7 million in March).  

While the two-horse race is an interesting sidelight, the more important statistic is industry growth. In Q1, Prosper and Lending Club combined for more than $30 million in originations, up $10.7 million (55%) compared to about $20 million in Q1 2007. Only $3.4 million of the Q1 total (17%) was subprime, compared to $7.0 million (36%) a year ago.

Loan originations doubled in the prime/near prime (Prosper grades AA to C and all of Lending Club) ending the quarter at just under $27 million.

Why so much attention to a tiny sliver of the $2.5 trillion U.S. consumer loan market? It's new. It's different. It's social. And it's an experiment in online finance we get to watch in real time thanks to the transparency of the lenders. For more info on the market, see our recent Online Banking Report on P2P lending.

Q1 2008 Loan Volume: Prosper vs. Lending Club
in $ millions (U.S. only)

  Prosper
All Grades
Prosper
AA-C*
Prosper AA-C
Low DTI**
Lending Club*** Total
Q1 2008 $20.5 $17.1 $10.7 $9.8 $30.3
   March $7.3 $6.0 $3.7 $4.1 $11.4
   Feb $6.0 $4.9 $2.9 $2.9 $8.9
   Jan $7.2 $6.1 $4.0 $2.8 $10.0
Q1 2007 $19.6 $12.6 $8.0 n/a $19.6
'08 vs. '07 +$0.9 +$4.5 +$2.7 +$10.7
% change +4.6% +36% +34% +55%

Source: Online Banking Report compilation of company data, 2 April 2008
*Loans made to Prosper grade AA through C borrowers (FICO 640+)
**Loans made to Prosper grade AA through C borrowers with debt-to-income (DTI) less than 30% 
***Lending Club only makes loans primarily to the "prime/low DTI" segment (FICO 640+, DTI <30%)

Note:
1. These prime/near prime/subprime distinctions can help financial institutions compare their prices to the marketplace rates.

Person-to-Business Lending: A Wake-Up Call for Small Business Lenders?

image Talk about turning the tables. Now individuals are lending to businesses. Has the credit crunch gotten to that level?

Small business lending, or the lack thereof, was highlighted in today’s Wall Street Journal in a column by Jane Kim that ran on the front page of the Personal Journal section, Where Either a Borrower or Lender Can Be: Small-Business Owners Turn to Online Networks for Funds as Banks Tighten Credit (here).

The article includes three examples of small business owners, frustrated with the stinginess of bank lending departments, that turned to person-to-person exchanges for loans. Apparently, all three had excellent credit since Mr. Walsh was able to borrow $22,500 at 10.25% and Mr. Kelley $18,500 at 10.97%, both from Prosper. And Mr. Kalempa received $15,000 from LendingClub for 9.6%. You don't get funded for loans of that size unless your credit is good and your story even better.

Small business owners may not have time to shop for credit, but they do network. And given how unique positive borrowing experience are, these P2P success stories will be told and re-told dozens of times. The credit-crunch induced conservatism of the banking community, especially towards growing businesses, could be an HUGE opportunity for the new P2P marketplaces.

It could be the crossing-the-chasm market niche that the loan exchanges need in order to gain traction and profitability as they position themselves for the mainstream consumer marketplace. The credit markets are huge and complicated and it's impossible to predict how this plays out. But if I worked in small business banking product management, I'd circulate this story to senior management and start working on my response to the P2P lending threat. 

P2P Lender IOU Central Suspended by Regulators

image In what it hopes is a temporary set-back, Canada's IOU Central has stopped taking new loan applications or accepting bids on existing ones. The company was launched two weeks ago (coverage here). Evidently, a bit more work needs to be done before the site is fully blessed by the Canadian government.

This might explain why IOU Central seemingly came out of nowhere to become the first Canadian P2P lender. We'll let you know what we hear from the founders. Thanks to Wiseclerk, via Prosper Lending Review, for the tip.

IOU Central homepage (29 Feb 2008)

IOU Central homepage


Explanation of suspension
(29 Feb 2008, 4 PM Pacific)

IOU Central explains its halt in lending

Quicken Loans Enters the Personal Finance Space with Quizzle

image Two years ago, computerized personal financial management was a two-horse race: Intuit's Quicken vs. Microsoft Money. Both full-featured. Both relatively easy to use. But both were packaged software apps, clearly not the future of consumer computing.

Fast forward to 2008: We now have two dozen startups, several banks, and other financial stalwarts, offering online personal finance of every size and shape (see Online Banking Report 142/143 and 131/132).

image The latest entrant: Quicken Loans, which launched an open beta of Quizzle, an online budget and personal finance portal that features home values, mortgage advice, and free credit reports/scores from Experian (see note 1).

Quizzle also calculates what it calls your Quizzle score based on your credit score, home value, savings, debt, and household income/expenses (see second screenshot, below). Debt payments are imported from credit report data, but users can edit the information or add other items to improve the results.

Quizzle also provides home-value estimates calculated from public records, but in my case, it's no Zillow, and listed a home value that was significantly wrong (see note 1).  But it's simple to edit the number with your own estimate. Quicken Loans should consider tapping Zillow's API to provide a second opinion.

The sign-up process
Signup is simple with users providing name, address, birth date, email address, income, and home-purchase date. Email address is verified with a message that must be confirmed. Then identity is verified online using data pulled from the Experian credit bureau.

This is the same procedure used by every online credit-report provider with one huge exception. Quicken Loans DOES NOT REQUIRE A SOCIAL SECURITY NUMBER, a huge usability and privacy gain. The company is allowing credit-report access based on a name/address/birth date match. That's a welcome improvement for the user.

Analysis
There are a few rough edges in the tool. The home-equity portion is not well explained. In my example, my home value was shown to be about $50,000 more than the loan balance. However, in the equity portion of the tool, it showed that my home equity to be zero. Evidently, the site uses an 80% LTV criteria to calculate the amount of home equity available to lend against. While that's a perfectly reasonable assumption in today's credit environment, it should be spelled out in detail.

But overall, it's a great tool. The really free credit report and score alone are enough of a payback to gain consumer usage. The rest of the Quizzle score is less useful, but still interesting. And seeing it all in one place is fantastic. It will be interesting to see how Quicken Loans pulls me back to the site in the future.

Quizzle is off to a great start, and I look forward to seeing more companies, including banks, credit unions, and card issuers, integrate credit scores/reports into their online offerings (see note 2).

Overall scores:
    Look and feel (user interface) ==> A
    Credit information ==> A+
    Other tools ==> B
 

Quizzle home (18 Feb. 2008, prior to entering a ZIP code)

Quizzle from Quicken Loans home 18 Feb 2008


Overview pages showing the makeup of the overall Quizzle score

(upper right)

Quicken Loans Quizzle main results page

Note:

1. Quizzle uses a 900-point scale for credit scores, padding 50 points to everyone's score compared to Fair Isaac's FICO that tops out at 850. This makes you feel a little better about your score. No doubt, credit score inflation will continue, with someone using a 1,000-point scale in the near future. 

2. WaMu has provided free credit scores to credit card customers for several years.

IOU Central Launches First P2P Lending Exchange in Canada

image

We were surprised to learn today that someone beat Community Lend to market, becoming Canada's first person-to-person lending exchange (previous coverage here). The Montreal-based startup, IOU Central, says they've been working on the company for a year.

The company merged with an established Danish person-to-person lender FairRates <fairrates.dk>, whose co-founders, Robert Bialek and Arkadiusz Hajduk, are now on the IOU Central team.

Much like its U.S. counterparts, Prosper and LendingClub, IOU Central facilitates installment loans of up to $25,000 CDN, with terms of up to 3 years.

The company's homepage includes a YouTube video of its President, Phil Marleau, giving an 80-second overview of the company. Even more important, they have a testimonial from a former TD Bank EVP to the right of the video (see screenshot below).

The company issued a news release today (here) that was picked up by several blogs (here and here). For more info on the market for P2P loan, and what financial institutions should do about it, see our recent Online Banking Report (here).

IOU Central homepage on launch day 12 Feb 2007

New Person-to-Person Lender GlobeFunder Now Accepting Consumer Loan Applications

Three new P2P lenders are known to be preparing to go to market in 2008: image

  • GlobeFunder: Opened for loan applications earlier this month, but is still not accepting individual lenders at this point. I tried testing the loan application, but it would not accept requests from Washington state.
  • imageFynanz is the latest P2P lender to surface. According to the Prosper Lending Review blog, the company is gearing up to enter the U.S. market specializing in student loans, a space that Virgin Money USA has said it will enter later this year. Fynanz founder is Chirag Chaman, although he is not listed on the company's website.
  • imageLoanio: Has been saying "coming in January" for the past several months.

In addition, I know of three others in formation and I'm sure there are dozens of others circulating business plans. With 100+ million potential customers in the United States, there is probably room for dozens to co-exist, although only a few will ever become household names.

For a complete analysis of the market see our most recent Online Banking Report (here).  

image

Prosper Increases its Loan Fee by 100%

As noted in our recent research report on the P2P lending market (here), the exchanges need to boost revenues to remain viable. Even with scale, a 1% borrower fee and 1% servicing fee just don't provide enough revenue with the relatively small loan sizes currently being funded.

For example, using Prosper's previous pricing on a typical $7,000 loan, about $130 would be earned in the first year, then another $50 for the remaining two years of the loan (see note 1), for a maximum of $230 in lifetime revenues per loan.

So until loan sizes increase dramatically as secured notes become more common, Prosper has raised its prices for the core portion of its loan demand, the alt-prime and subprime portion. The company left its superprime, class AA price alone because it competes with banks and credit unions for this type of borrower.  

As you can see from the table below, most loan-origination fees increased by 1 point, although C and D loans were increased 2 points. Looking at the company's mix of business during the first half of 2007, the new pricing would have doubled its loan-origination revenue from about $500,000 to just over $1 million. The weighted average fee under the prior pricing was 1.2%, compared to 2.4% under the new formula.

Here's the new price plan effective Jan 4, 2008, as announced in the Prosper blog (here):

Type   New Price   Previous  Change  Avg Loan*  Avg Loan Fee* 
Prime  
  AA           1%               1%             none             $9,000            $90
  A             2%               1%            +1 point         $10,300         $210
Near Prime
  B             2%                1%           +1 point         $9,800          $200
  C             3%                1%           +2 points       $8,400           $250
  D             3%                1%           +2 points       $6,500           $195
Sub-prime
  E             3%                2%            +1 point        $4,500          $135
  HR           3%                2%            +1 point        $3,000           $90

Weighted
  Average*** 2.4%          1.2%

*Average loan size during the first half of 2007 per company
**Loan-origination fee deducted from proceeds of loan; there is no fee if the loan does not get funded
***Using the loan mix from the first half of 2007

Note:
1. It depends how the servicing fee is calculated. At Prosper, it's calculated on the outstanding loan balance which for a $7,000 loan averages approximately $6,000 in year 1, $3,750 in year 2 and $1,250 in year 3.

Zopa Credit Union Partners Give it Top Billing

In researching our latest report on P2P lending, we visited the websites of Zopa's six credit union partners to see how they were promoting, and explaining, the relatively complicated new product. Overall, they gave Zopa surprising prominence. Five of the six mention it on their homepages, with three of those running large banners, usually in rotation with other offers (see list below as observed on Dec. 6). USA Federal Credit Union is the lone holdout, with no mention of Zopa on its website so far.

  • Addison Avenue FCU ==> Square ad on right side of hompage
  • Affinity Plus FCU ==> Banner on homepage 
  • First Tech CU ===> Two places on homepage, banner in the middle rotating with
        four offers and square box on right (see screenshot below)
  • FORUM CU ===> Small graphic and link on bottom of homepage
  • Provident CU ==> Banner on homepage rotating with four offers 
  • USA Federal CU ==> Not mentioned on website
  • Analysis
    I understand why the credit unions are featuring their Zopa relationship. It's new, it's different, it's exciting and the helping-others message fits right in with the holiday spirit. However, for the most part, the program is woefully under-explained when clicking through the banners. I have to believe the most common member reaction to seeing the Zopa product info is, "Huh?"

    It must lead to some interesting conversations on the phone and in the branch. Some of which may result in sales, so it's not all bad. But I don't think the ultimate purpose of partnering with Zopa is to confuse members to the extent that they call. There are easier ways to do that.

    Examples
    First Tech CU has two images on its homepage, both emphasizing Zopa's core message of helping. And the educational aspect is helpful (see screenshot below).

    Addison Avenue CU takes a light-hearted approach on its homepage ad, saying:

    Introducing Zopa (And no, it isn't a new energy drink)

    And Addison Avenue does the best job explaining the service, although I still think it raises more questions than it answers.  

    New Online Banking Report Published: Person-to-Person Lending 2.0

    For much of the past four or five weeks I've been researching and testing person-to-person lending sites. I've become a lender and have gone through the borrowing process at all three major U.S. P2P lending exchanges: Prosper, Zopa, and Lending Club. Plus I set up friends and family with loans at Virgin Money USA and LoanBack.

    It was all part of the research process for the latest Online Banking Report entitled, Person-to-Person Lending 2.0: Disruptive service or market niche? That report is now available at our main website (here).*  

    I had originally intended on publishing it in early December. But as I was trying to wrap things up, Zopa launched its new U.S unit. So I stopped the presses and added an analysis of its unique model. Then as I was finishing that, Lending Club made a significant change last week, becoming a national lender instead of state-sanctioned one. That too is now in the report. 

    Here's a summary of the major fourth quarter activity in the person-to-person lending sector:

    • Oct. 2: Prosper overhauled a number of its lending tools, which were announced at our FINOVATE conference Oct. 2 (video here
    • Oct. 6: Virgin Money (formerly CircleLending) launched its revamped friends-and-family service with a splashy debut in Boston with Virgin founder Richard Branson leading the parade (coverage here)
    • Dec. 3: Zopa launched its U.S. version, an entirely new way of looking at the P2P space (coverage here)
    • Dec. 13: Lending Club went national in a unique partnership with WebBank

    ________________________________________________

    *Subscribers may download the report free of charge.
    Others may purchase it as an individual report.

    Zopa Launches U.S. Loan Marketplace Monday Night

    Just two days after its semi-public beta, Zopa US opened for business late yesterday. The announcement was in the Zopa US blog (here) and emailed to its house list this morning. See Sunday's NetBanker post (here) for our initial impression of the service.

    Below is a screenshot from Day 1, forever memorializing Zopa employee Scott, as the first (and so far, only) Zopa borrower. And since all Zopa lenders are required to help at least one borrower, Scott's payments on his $1,000 9.9% loan have been covered for the first year by the company's first 13 CD depositors.

    First Look: Zopa Opens in the United States with Depository Model

    Zopa US opened a private beta Saturday morning, emailing selected customers that had previously signed onto its mailing list. Both of our listed email addresses received invites.

    We'll look closer at the new service in our upcoming Online Banking Report on P2P lending, but what stands out is the business model: part P2P lender, part deposit-taking financial institutions, part charitable organization, part broker, and part lead-generation site. I'm not positive you can be all of those things at once, but it will be fascinating to see if Zopa and its partner credit unions can pull it off.

    How it works
    To understand how the Zopa US system works, you must first realize that all loans and all deposits are held at the six partner credit unions (see list below). So in that way, Zopa is a pure lead-generation play.

    Zopa "investors" put their money in fixed-rate, 1-year certificates of deposits held by a credit union partner. Borrowers take out 5-year fixed-rate personal loans, again from a credit union partner. This part is pure depository financial institution, with Zopa as a broker. 

    Finally, the P2P/social finance aspect comes into play with the requirement that all depositors must choose to "help" at least one borrower by reducing the borrower's loan payment. The depositor has the choice of accepting the highest rate of interest, currently 5.1%, and making a token donation, or sharply reducing the APY on the Zopa CD in order to provide more financial assistance to Zopa borrowers. Depositors select who they want to help from the listed loans. An obvious scenario would be a grandparent investing a substantial sum into low-interest Zopa CDs, so that a child/grandchild could take out a 5-year loan to help with a down payment on a house. But depositors may also help a stranger whose story they find appealing. 

    Our preliminary take
    Zopa has removed much of the uncertainty from the P2P lending process. But by eliminating the risk, they've also reduced available returns. Marketing Director Wade Lagrone, with whom I spoke Saturday afternoon (as Zopa engineers hammered away on the final tests), believes that U.S. investors overwhelmingly prefer low-risk, fixed-income investments and will prefer this P2P model.

    I'm not convinced yet. It seems like a somewhat convoluted path to buy a simple CD. First, you must set your deposit rate, choose one or more borrowers to help, and finally join one of the six credit unions. The website makes the process relatively straightforward, but it's not the same as simply dropping a few grand into an online bank. 

    On the other hand, the ability to donate all or part of your deposit's interest-yield could appeal to certain investors, especially the well-heeled looking to help family members obtain below-market-rate loans for defined purposes (home purchase, education, business expansion, etc). And eliminating lender risk removes the huge chore of keeping lenders happy and informed about their book of loans. 

    Another potential problem is lack of transparency for borrowers. To obtain a Zopa loan, prospective borrowers fill out a nonbinding "loan quote." Not until after this application is made, and a credit inquiry logged, do borrowers find out if they will receive the lowest rate of 8.75% or the highest of 16.99%. And borrowers have no idea whether they will receive "help" from investors to lower their payment, and effectively reduce the APR of the loan.

    Screenshot: Zopa CD setup (1 Dec 2007)
    Zopa investors (aka lenders) select the rate of return for their 1-year CD and then choose a borrower to help by offsetting a portion of their Zopa loan payment.

     
    Appendix: Credit Union Partners
    The six U.S. credit union partners of Zopa US:

    • Addison Avenue Federal Credit Union
    • Affinity Plus Federal Credit Union
    • FirstTech Credit Union
    • FORUM Credit Union
    • Provident Credit Union
    • USA Federal Credit Union