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New OBR Published: Digital Banking Forecast Through 2023

image Alright digital banking fans (note 1), it’s that time of year again for our annual look-back at the previous year, along with a fearless forecast for the rest of the decade and beyond.  

The report, Digital Banking Forecast: 2014 to 2023, includes our take on future U.S. household penetration levels of online banking, mobile banking and billpay. While online banking has been relatively flat, with low-single-digit growth, mobile has exploded, expanding ten-fold in the past 5 years and now reaching about one-third of U.S. households. We are four or five years away from the tipping point where more households bank via smartphone than by desktop.

It also includes a revised 10-year forecast for U.S. peer-to-peer lending. After growing almost eight-fold in the past two years, we expect continued strong growth of 30% compounded annual through 2023. And with the expected blockbuster IPO of Lending Club (note 2), the area will receive a LOT of attention in the press this year.

Finally, we update our list of top-10 project priorities for 2014.


Top developments of 2013

The report includes a summary of the top-10 developments during the year (in alphabetic order):

  • Bitcoin proves there is demand for a global virtual liquid asset
  • Coin’s programmable credit card is a viral hit
  • Crowdfund investing, both debt and equity, gains serious traction globally
  • Mobile-first banks such as GoBank, Moven and Numbrs arrive on the scene
  • Mobile login gets simplified at Bank of the West, Capital One, GoBank and others
  • P2P lending moves beyond a niche as Lending Club originates $2 billion
  • Photo billpay launches at US Bank and First Financial
  • Regions Bank adds time-based fees to remote mobile deposit
  • Square and Google enable true email-based peer-to-peer payments
  • Yodlee shows the power of mobile in financial collaboration with Tandem


New entrants into the OBR Hall of Fame

Each year we rank the top online/mobile innovations of all time (North America). A total of 50 achievements are listed from 51 companies:

  • 18 banks
  • 5 credit unions
  • 11 non-bank financial services companies
  • 17 fintech companies

Two new entrants were added this year:

  • Capital One’s non-alphanumeric mobile login, SureSwipe
  • Yodlee’s mobile financial collaboration tool, Tandem 


About the report

Digital Banking (Online/Mobile) Forecast (link)
The next 10 years: 2014 through 2023

Author: Jim Bruene, Editor & Founder

Published: 9 Jan 2014

Length: 36 pages, 29 tables, 13,500 words

Cost: No extra charge to OBR subscribers, US$495 for others here


Report excerpts:

Left: GoBank and Moven set the mobile bar high
Right: 10-year P2P lending forecast

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1. Can we agree that “digital banking” equals online and/or mobile banking?
2. Lending Club could be the biggest fintech startup IPO of all time.