Table 1
Online Banking Timeline
number of U.S. households using online banking/bill payment
Source: Online Banking Report estimates based on industry data plus or
minus 15%, 12/03
Every spreadsheet and business plan needs a prediction of
future demand. So every year we gather forecasts made by prominent researchers
and analysts, compare and contrast their results, layer on our own insights, and
develop a 10-year forecast. Accuracy is estimated at plus or minus 15% for years
one through three, plus or minus 20% for years four through seven, and plus or
minus 25% for the out-years.
Over the years we’ve demonstrated a respectable track record . Our first
comprehensive forecast made six years ago (year-end 1997), predicted that online
banking usage would increase nearly 6-fold (560%) from 4.5 million in 1997 to 29
million households by year-end 2003. That prediction was nearly dead-on, perhaps
10% low, with an estimated
29 to 35 million households banking online today.
Table 2
Online Banking Evolution
|
Phase |
Period |
Product Positioning |
Primary Market |
| Beta | 1983 to 1996 | Beats keying data into Quicken. | Outliers |
| Version 1.0 Novelty | 1996 to 1999 | Beats calling an 800 number with convoluted menus. | Financial geeks and early adopters |
| Version 2.0 New | 2000 to 2002 | More efficient record keeping and easier for routine transactions |
Early adopters and early mainstream |
| Version 3.0 Early mainstream | 2003+ | Better management of personal finances with less effort |
50% of U.S. households |
Source: Online Banking Report,
12/03