Alright digital banking fans (note 1), it’s that time of year again for our annual look-back at the previous year, along with a fearless forecast for the rest of the decade and beyond.
The report, Digital Banking Forecast: 2014 to 2023, includes our take on future U.S. household penetration levels of online banking, mobile banking and billpay. While online banking has been relatively flat, with low-single-digit growth, mobile has exploded, expanding ten-fold in the past 5 years and now reaching about one-third of U.S. households. We are four or five years away from the tipping point where more households bank via smartphone than by desktop.
It also includes a revised 10-year forecast for U.S. peer-to-peer lending. After growing almost eight-fold in the past two years, we expect continued strong growth of 30% compounded annual through 2023. And with the expected blockbuster IPO of Lending Club (note 2), the area will receive a LOT of attention in the press this year.
Finally, we update our list of top-10 project priorities for 2014.
Top developments of 2013
The report includes a summary of the top-10 developments during the year (in alphabetic order):
- Bitcoin proves there is demand for a global virtual liquid asset
- Coin’s programmable credit card is a viral hit
- Crowdfund investing, both debt and equity, gains serious traction globally
- Mobile-first banks such as GoBank, Moven and Numbrs arrive on the scene
- Mobile login gets simplified at Bank of the West, Capital One, GoBank and others
- P2P lending moves beyond a niche as Lending Club originates $2 billion
- Photo billpay launches at US Bank and First Financial
- Regions Bank adds time-based fees to remote mobile deposit
- Square and Google enable true email-based peer-to-peer payments
- Yodlee shows the power of mobile in financial collaboration with Tandem
New entrants into the OBR Hall of Fame
Each year we rank the top online/mobile innovations of all time (North America). A total of 50 achievements are listed from 51 companies:
- 18 banks
- 5 credit unions
- 11 non-bank financial services companies
- 17 fintech companies
Two new entrants were added this year:
- Capital One’s non-alphanumeric mobile login, SureSwipe
- Yodlee’s mobile financial collaboration tool, Tandem
About the report
Digital Banking (Online/Mobile) Forecast (link)
The next 10 years: 2014 through 2023
Author: Jim Bruene, Editor & Founder
Published: 9 Jan 2014
Length: 36 pages, 29 tables, 13,500 words
Cost: No extra charge to OBR subscribers, US$495 for others here
Left: GoBank and Moven set the mobile bar high
Right: 10-year P2P lending forecast
1. Can we agree that “digital banking” equals online and/or mobile banking?
2. Lending Club could be the biggest fintech startup IPO of all time.